Distinctly Montana Magazine

w w w. d i s t i n c t ly m o n ta n a . c o m 57 PoPulatIon groWth SEEmS ConCEntratEd In a handful of CountIES StatEWIdE WIth a BIaS for "urBan" CountIES. What Could InfluEnCE grEatEr gEograPhIC dIVErSIty for an InCrEaSIng PoPulatIon? By far the dominant factor for county population growth rates is economic opportu- nity. Younger, more mobile people are attracted by higher wages and work opportu- nities. A second migration dynamic is less pronounced but more important for rural areas. That is amenity-based migration of middle-aged people for quality of life. Often the counties that can benefit from this are those which are adjacent to urban areas, so Montana's "frontier" counties do not fully participate. Energy development is an example of an economic opportunity that has actually drawn people away from urban areas, since for the fossil fuel-related development that is where the resources are. This has been affecting communities such as Glen- dive and Miles City, which were stagnating before the boom occurred. These trends make population forecasting so "interesting." What doES thE PoPulatIon agE dEmograPhIC look lIkE for 30 yEarS from noW? What aBout EthnICIty? Over 30 years, the age composition in Montana changes considerably, although the growth in the oldest age cohorts does not go on indefinitely. About 22 percent of Montanans in year 2044 will be 65 years of age or older, compared to 17 percent today. 5.3 percent of Montanans 30 years from now will be 85 years of age or older, much higher than the 2.2 percent in that age cohort today. Clearly that has big im- plications for social services, housing, health care, and even state tax receipts. Higher birth rates among American Indians does slightly raise their share of the total popula- tion, whereas black and Hispanic populations are expected to remain small. do you thInk that thE ImPaCtS of ClImatE ChangE WIll SkEW thE PoPulatIon ProJECtIonS you arE lookIng at today? Climate change is one of many trends that could torpedo these predictions, cer- tainly. We tried to speculate on how climate change could affect the Montana economy a few years ago in a Montana Business Quarterly article (Summer 2007). Even if climate change was certain, its impacts on Montana are far from predictable. Regardless, it has the potential to make Montana a more attractive state to live and do business and so could be important. haVE WE mISSEd any ImPortant trEndS for PoPulatIon InCrEaSE In montana? I would simply say that states are political, not economic constructs. So demographic patterns are quite different between different parts of our state, just as the economic base varies. When state government is concerned, we are all one state. But in terms of our economic and ultimately our population dynamics over a long time span, differ- ent parts of the state may follow their own script. The potential for, say, a Bozeman to become the size of Boise in 30 years cannot be totally discounted, but it would cer- tainly be really tough right now to make that call. Long-term population projections can be fraught with error, particularly when assumptions about rates of in-migration, birth rates, and life expectancies are not borne out.

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