Distinctly Montana Magazine

d i s t i n c t ly m o n ta n a • fa l l 2 0 1 4 56 M o n ta n a i n yea rs 3 What IS montana'S ProJECtEd PoPulatIon for 2044? Our projection is that Montana's population in year 2044 will be 1,222,000 people, which compares to a count of 989,414 as determined by the 2010 census. This is a slower rate of population growth than occurred dur- ing the last decade 2000-2010. In that 10-year period, Montana added 87,220 net new residents, a 9.7 percent increase (0.93 percent per year). This was exactly equal to the percent growth in the national population, but it was the slowest population growth of any other state in the Western Census region. Our forecast for population calls for growth in the coming years at roughly half that rate. What PortIon of PoPulatIon InCrEaSE In montana IS from BIrth ratES and from In-mIgratIon? The so-called natural rate of growth in population, de- fined as births minus deaths, has contributed to popula- tion growth each year as life expectancies grow. Cur- rently the natural growth in Montana's population is on the order of 3,100 people per year. As life expectancy increases tail off, however, and as the oldest cohorts of Montana's population become relatively more promi- nent, this natural increase diminishes. We estimate by year 2044 it will be essentially zero. Migration rates, on the other hand, are more volatile. In the 1980's in Montana they were negative. They also shrank considerably during the recent recession. We expect to see them stabilize around 6,500 people per year at this decade's mid-point, with fluctuations around that order of magnitude in each of the coming years. All of these forecasts are for the state as a whole. Re- gions and individual counties within Montana can have quite different demographic patterns. WhICh StatES ContrIButE thE moSt In-mIgratIon affECtIng montana'S PoPulatIon groWth? WIll thIS ChangE oVEr tImE? The two major statistical determinants of migration are population and distance. This translates into two principals: 1) the greater the population of two states, the greater the migration between them; 2) the less the distance between two states, the greater the migration. The Census Bureau reports that Washington State provided the most in-migrants (4,783) to Montana dur- ing 2012, while Idaho was second at 3.385. The Wash- ington figure can be attributed to its large population of 6,815,800. Idaho's population was only 1,573,000 but is adjacent to Montana. Last decade California was a significant contributor of new residents, particularly to Ravalli, Flathead, and Gallatin counties. In-migration in the last decade was primarily to Western Montana. The last couple of years Eastern Montana counties have been getting the bulk of in-migrants. What ProSPECtS arE thErE for a nEW Era of "homEStEadIng" By ImmIgrant PEoPlES? I think this is unlikely. The homesteading during the early 1900's was the result of land being available and sizable foreign migration. A lot of things would have to change simply to make this process legally feasible, let alone economically viable. montana IS onE of thE lEaSt dEnSEly PoPulatEd StatES In thE natIon. arE thErE any rEal ProBlEmS faCIng thE StatE from PoPulatIon groWth through 2044? The issues are certainly localized. In western valleys with less developable land and/or with issues with aqui- fers or other resources, strong local population growth could pose issues. But for many parts of the state a lack of population growth — or more specifically, the out migration of younger residents — presents the more acute problems for infrastructure, schools, and overall viability of smaller communities. popuLatIoN INtErVIEW WIth patrICk m. barkEy DIrECtor of thE burEau of buSINESS aND ECoNomIC rESEarCh at thE uNIVErSIty of moNtaNa

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