Distinctly Montana Magazine

D I S T I N C T LY M O N TA N A • S U M M E R 2 0 1 6 68 M O N TA N A i n 3 yea rs FARMS & RANCHES FARM AND RANCH LIFE HAVE BEEN ENDEMIC TO MONTANA'S LIFE AND CULTURE FOR OVER 150 YEARS. HOW MIGHT THINGS LOOK DIFFERENT IN 2045? Ranching in Montana is one of the most iconic occupations in the state as well as one of the oldest. Over the last 150 years, few things have changed in this business: it is still a labor intensive industry that is vulnerable to weather and price swings. Montana has specialized in the cow-calf sector, which is not likely to change anytime soon. While there will continue to be growing demand to establish niche markets and keeps heavier animals in Montana, I think much of what ranching is today will be unchanged in 30 years. Montana farming will remain an important aspect of the state's economy and will become an increasingly important supplier of commodities to a growing world population and global economy. It is likely that there will be continued demand from Asian consumers for Montana's high-quality wheat and Montana's dry pulse industry, which is already the largest in the United States and will be a well- established supplier of plant-based protein for food products by 2045. Perhaps the largest changes will be in the new ways that tech- nology will be used to maximize outputs and minimize inputs. In a not-so-unreasonable scenario, farmers in 2045 would see precision agriculture technology be standard on all farm equip- ment, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) providing highly detailed information and data about their farms, and software for analyzing and making cost-effective adjustments will be at farmers' finger tips. Perhaps most importantly, the generation of 2045 farmers will have grown up in the digital age and will be astute liaisons between technology and food production. TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU SEE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTING THE FOOD PRODUCTION OF FARMS AND RANCHES OVER THE NEXT 30 YEARS? Montana's agriculture is highly dependent on dryland farm- ing; that is, farming that is contingent on rain and available soil moisture. erefore, the impacts of climate change will depend on how quickly changes occur and the specific effects of the changes. Warmer climate without a significant reduction in rainfall is likely to bode well for many Montana farms and ranches. However, reductions in rainfall, even seemingly small ones, can lead to long periods of production and economic uncertainty. Typical responses to drought mean that ranches need to sell more of their herd than they would under normal circumstances. Building this herd back to scale can be difficult, particularly over the last 20 years with an aging ranch population and opportunities to convert ranch land to grain operations and other land acquisitions. Furthermore, we are likely to see some staples of Montana's farming, such as hard red spring wheat, leave the state for cooler temperatures in Canada, while other crops may become part of Montana's new agricultural landscape. Ultimately, there is likely to be a race between the effects of climate change and technological innovations in farming equipment, crop varieties, input manage- ment techniques, and approaches to managing pests, weeds, and other challenging aspects that could benefit from warmer and potentially drier conditions. CAN TRADITIONAL FARM AND RANCH LIFE SURVIVE THE OUT-MIGRA- TION OF WORKERS AND YOUNGER FAMILY MEMBERS, AS WELL AS THE DECLINE OF SMALL TOWNS AND CITIES? Over the past century, farms in the United States have consoli- dated and grown in size. As technological innovation continues to supplement and, to some extent, replace farm labor, most of Montana's commodity producing farms will likely continue to con- solidate and grow (albeit likely not at the same speed as in the past 100 years). is is likely to have some impact on rural communities, but the extent of these changes is difficult to predict. For example, seasonal work has been critical for ranches during calving season, branding, or just the day-to-day operation. However, ranches have been adapting to the reality of less labor availability for some time now and will continue to do so. See a Dryhead Ranch roundup www.distinctlymontana.com/ranch163 DISTINCTLY MONTANA | DIGITAL

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