Distinctly Montana Magazine

D I S T I N C T LY M O N TA N A • W I N T E R 2 0 1 6 78 e long term average mortality rate is lower for large old trees, but they are more likely to succumb during extremely stressful periods. LOOKING FORWARD TO 2045, WHAT WILL MONTANA FORESTS LOOK LIKE? WHICH OF MONTANA'S FORESTS WILL LIKELY BE HEALTHIEST, AND WHICH SEEM TO BE IN GREATEST DANGER OF CONTINUED STRESS AND DAMAGE? I expect that the low elevation dry forests will be under the great- est stress and sustaining the highest levels of damage by 2045. ese are forests dominated by ponderosa pine, with some Douglas-fir, grand fir, and western larch co-occurring. Unnaturally intense wild- fires — largely a result of the misguided policy of fire suppression that caused unnaturally heavy fuel loads to accumulate — will likely be even more common than they are now. ese dry forests will likely be experiencing drought-caused tree die off events by 2045. e low elevation forests are also the most likely to be fragmented by development as timber companies sell off their lands. HOW WILL WILDLIFE DISTRIBUTION AND PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOR IN 2045 BE AFFECTED BY CHANGING FORESTS? Increasing human population size and resulting fragmenta- tion and loss of forest habitats will be a major driver of wildlife distribution and movement in the future. Wide-ranging animals like grizzly bears need large blocks of habitat with low levels of hu- man use. e development of commercial forestlands — privately owned forests that now produce timber while still providing crucial habitat — into houses, roads, and shopping centers is a huge future threat to Montana's wildlife. Wildlife move around in response to natural disturbances like wildfire. As the distribution of forest age classes changes across the landscape, wildlife will respond and move as well. is sort of a shift- ing habitat mosaic is a normal part of a healthy forest landscape. CAN FORESTS RESTORE THEMSELVES IF JUST LEFT ALONE, OR DOES MAN NEED TO INTERVENE? Left alone for long enough, almost any impacted forest can restore itself. But, this assumes that we actually leave the forest alone! Fire is a great example. Many of Montana's forests depend on fire, yet the standing policy in most areas is to extinguish all fires immediately. is of course only makes the current problem worse because the lack of fire has caused very heavy fuel loads, which in turn increases the likelihood of very severe fires, which most of society will not tolerate. e only alternative is to actively intervene and use mechanical treatments (thinning) and prescribed fire to restore more natural fuel loads and forest densities. From a biological perspective, most forests could recover if left alone. But, that is rarely a socially acceptable option, so we use active manage- ment to assist nature. WHAT ARE THE THREE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS THAT CAN BE DONE TO WORK TOWARD HEALTHY, SUSTAINABLE FORESTS OF THE FUTURE? First, restore fire to our forests. We will always have fires in Montana and the west. Fire is inevitable and unavoidable. e trees in our forests are fire-adapted, and some are even fire-depen- dent. Fighting fires only makes the current problem worse. We need to be lighting fires — that is, using prescribed fire — instead of fighting fires. We should be focused on putting fire in the forest on our terms, rather than reacting to fires as they start. Second, do everything possible to prevent introduction of non- native insects and diseases. e potential for a non-native insect or disease to devastate our forests cannot be overstated. We have to safeguard against non-native pathogens and diseases if the forests of the future are to have a chance. Finally, we need to make forests accessible and important to the next generation. Forest sustainability depends on society valuing forests. If our children and grandchildren do not spend time in the forests, they will not value them. Forests provide valuable timber products and jobs; they provide clean, reliable water for human uses; and they provide recreational opportunities, from hunting to hiking to bird watching. To a very large degree, the future of forest sustainability depends on giving the next generation reasons to value forests. PROBABLY THE SINGLE GREATEST THREAT TO MONTANA FORESTS IS THE FUTURE INTRODUCTION OF NON-NATIVE INSECTS AND DISEASES.

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