Distinctly Montana Magazine

d i s t i n c t ly m o n ta n a • s u m m e r 2 0 1 5 32 M o n ta n a i n 3 In thE nExt 30 yEarS what arE SCIEn- tIfIC ModElS PrEdICtIng for BIrdS and ClIMatE ChangE In Montana? New research suggests we — and the birds — may be in for some startling changes over the next three decades. When scientists "roll up" the various scenarios for future climatic conditions, many birds are predicted to shift their ranges, pri- marily north but also higher in elevation, as they at- tempt to track climate, food, and habitat conditions. is past year the National Audubon Society released an exhaustive report in which they modeled shifts in North American birds based on "bioclimatic envelopes" (suitable climate conditions for each species) both today and then into the future, given possible scenarios for increases in carbon pollution. Over 100 Montana bird species were found to be imperiled; by 2050 it is projected they would no longer be able to survive in more than half of their current range. Find- ing suitable habitat within their required climate range will likely challenge many, even some of our common birds like Mountain Chickadee, Clark's Nutcracker, and Osprey. In 2045, what wIll thE ChallEngES BE, wIth rEgard to PattErnS of MIgratIon or BrEEdIng In Montana? Our birds migrate based on many factors, primarily temperature, other weather conditions, and day length. Already some songbirds are migrating earlier each spring; however, the challenge for many by year 2045 will be whether habitat and food is available along route and on the breeding grounds. Studies show that alpine flow- ers are already blooming weeks early, and the hummingbirds that rely on flower nectar are not tracking this shift. Becoming "out of sync" with needed food could be an increasing challenge. Long-dis- tance migrants have a more challenging time tracking local condi- tions and weather than those birds that migrate from nearby. Once birds are on the nest, we only hope that climate change does not bring repeated wacky weather — too hot or too cold or too stormy. Our migrating and breeding birds will need healthy habitats, and BirDS & ClimaTE yea rs "WE arE parTNErS iN THiS laND, CO-SigNErS OF a COvENaNT." ~ STaNlEy KuNiTz Mounain Chickadee Chestnut -collared Longspur ptarmagin MATT BANTA

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