Distinctly Montana Magazine

3 M o ntana in SNOW Well let's start with the obvious. Will Montana still see snow in 2044? Certainly. While we cannot "predict" what will happen in the year 2044, we can provide some guidance on the likely changes as a result of climate change. Even under the most severe emissions scenario (and therefore warming trend), we will still see seasonal snow in Montana. The duration of snow cover at lower elevations will likely be more impacted than the snow at higher elevations. It is also important to note that Montana is a challenging place to understand the impacts of climate change. While we expect to see a warming around 1.5C by the 2040s (under a mid-range emissions scenario), the change in precipitation is a little more uncertain. The inter-model variability is greater than the mean of the anticipated change. However, if we do consider the mean-expected change in precipitation for the 2040s (under a mid-range emissions scenario) we see about a 20% increase in wintertime precipitation, which if cold enough would mean more snow. This ye a r S Interview with Jordy Hendrikx increase in precipitation, combined with an increase in temperature, will likely mean a more modest reduction in snow. A side note about emission scenarios is that we (i.e. all of us) can still have an influence on the trajectory that we follow. If we select a more energy-intensive future vs a less energy-intensive future, then we will see different emissions scenarios. Our choices can still make a difference. Will there be greater seasonal variations in snowfall and snowpack? Qualitative? Quantitative? The recent work on climate change does suggest that there will be an increase in extreme events, which when applied to a warming climate and the snowpack, will likely lead to more variability. The general trend will be a decreased snowpack, but even given this trend, we expect to see relatively good years (with well timed, large snow events), and relatively bad years, with low snowpacks. Jordy Hendrikx, PhD, is the Director of the Snow & Avalanche Laboratory and Assistant Professor of Geography at Montana State University. The Snow and Avalanche Lab features graduate and undergraduate studies in all areas of snow science. jordy.hendrikx@montana.edu, 406-994-6918, www.montana.edu/snowscience 20 distinctly montana • winter 2014

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